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Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Daily update 1/20 Many stocks well of their highs

They wasted no time selling the gap up this morning.  However, the dip buyers rushed in again mid day.  Here is a look at the SPX chart.

SPX closed right around the 2011 trend line.  It might be a kiss good bye, but too soon to tell.  Despite most indexes being positive the breadth was 60% negative.  There were 238 new highs and 109 new lows.  Once again the numbers are high on both ends.  Friday's strength brought out sellers at the open today.  That is quite different then what we have been seeing.  Maybe the pattern of V bottoms has come to an end.  We are still in a short term down trend on this chart.  Lets see what the futures chart has to offer.

The futures have popped up above the 200 SMA multiple times, but have been unable to stay there.  Will they conquer it or be turned back?

This market is messed up.  The breadth should not be this negative on an up day.  There should not be so many new highs and new lows at the same time.  There are quite a few people on each side of the boat.  This market is unlikely to go very far either way until one side of the boat gets a majority of the people.

We have gapped up nearly every day this year and yet we are lower.  The NAAIM survey jumped from 71 to 87 last week and yet price was down over that time.  If active money managers were adding long exposure how did the market end up going down?  Who was pulling money out?  The path of least resistance appears to be down to me.

I believe the ECB press conference is scheduled for 8:30 AM EST on Thursday.  How the market is going to react to whatever QE they decide to do is hard to say.  Until we get that behind us and see how the market reacts I think it is best to be nimble or flat.  Uncertainty is higher then usual at the moment.

One sign of a bull market coming to an end is when the average stock is much weaker then the major indexes.   Here is an interesting article from Bespoke % from 52-Week Highs  Take a look at this chart.

Utilities are the only sector where the average stock is only down a little.  Bespoke had this to say:

In the S&P 1500 as a whole, stocks are currently down an average of 15.71% from their 52-week high.

That is some serious weakness being masked by the indexes.  That much weakness is usually a signal of a significant correction coming or a bear market.  Yet another warning sign.


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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.