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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 10/15/20

Up 10/9/20

Up 10/13/20

Short term

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Monday, December 8, 2014

Daily update 12/8

I guess I won't be able to do a proper update tonight.  Sorry.  For some reason my data feed says that SPX was down .73% today.  It must be an error since we all know the market cannot go down because of all the seasonal and election cycle factors I keep hearing about every day.  Lets look at the chart any way.


SPX ended the day with a red price bar.  That is the first one since the Oct. low.  I read an incredible stat a while back that I forgot to share.  This is the latest in a calendar year we have gone without SPX having four down days in a row.  We were already 60 days past the record when I read that a week or two ago.  Just another indication of what a strange year it has been.  There were 239 new highs and 301 new lows.  One day off a new closing high in SPX we had over 300 new lows.  I had to double check the data with another source.  There was no data error.  That is a staggering number.  At this point I don't think it matters how many new highs we have, there is something seriously wrong here.  This chart has a potential short term double top look to it.  Lets see what the futures chart looks like.


Here we are back at the 50 SMA again.  We made only a marginal new high with the last bounce off that MA.  The -DI line is higher then it has been on this rally, but still has not hit the 35 level.  At 29 it would not take much more selling to get that though.  Lets take a peek at IWM.


Kind of looks like a potential head and shoulders pattern developing there.  I still think it is very important what happens to this index.  If it ends up breaking down that would be a full topping pattern at a lower high in an index a lot of people are watching.  That might increase selling pressure across the market.  Lets see what the breadth chart has to say.


The McClellan oscillator was already negative the last two days.  The 10 DMA lines had a negative crossover today for the first time since the Oct. low.  Breadth is ready for a pullback.  Lets look at the number of stocks above their 200 SMAs.


This indicator took quite a tumble today.  On top of the big divergence that started last July it has been diverging over the last couple of weeks.

I know this seems like an odd time of year for a pullback, but these charts sure look like that could be in the works.  There is enough technical damage that should lead to a pullback.  Some times over the last couple of years just when it looked like the market was going to drop the bulls would come rushing in.  I can't rule that out once again.  I think the bulls need a strong save tomorrow.  A weak bounce would probably get sold the next day.  If the bears show up again tomorrow we still have the key 2040 level.  Below that and the selling could pick up considerably.

I think the announcements of cuts in cap ex from oil companies may have been the driver behind today's drop.  I read the other day that the oil industry is responsible for about $1.2 trillion in GDP.  There will obviously be sizable ripple affects across the economy from these cap ex cuts.

Bob

1 comment:

Greg H. said...

Funny thing about the market, there's always a buyer for a seller. They say the market seasonality is in play here and we will bounce. Well the chips seem to be shifting from those who tried to short to those who sold early in the first place creating the weakness. They have the cash instead of shares and can come rushing back in to buy the dips in mass to steal the short's lunch money again. The game changes in favor of the bears only when there's a black swan event that's not broadcast like QE from the Fed, Draghi or other central bankers. Stay tuned.

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