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Monday, December 22, 2014

Daily update 12/22 - Rally extends (a little)

Are we in for another slow creep?  Here is the daily chart.

SPX closed fractionally above Friday's intraday high and at a new high close.  Oddly it never got above the intraday high from 12/5.  Well, maybe tomorrow.  Breadth was 56% positive.  That is slow creep kind of numbers.  There were 206 new highs and 23 new lows.  New highs are still marginal.  Lets take peek at the futures chart.

The futures look like they are running into a little bit of resistance here.  The range is narrowing up and there are a few upper tails.  They are still a long ways from the 18 SMA.  Some consolidation is in order.  It could be pretty sleepy here the next couple of days.

Personally I still don't like the daily chart.  This is a very aggressive retest of the high and I have seen a lot of those fail.  While the VIX has dropped on this bounce it is 15 while it was 11 when we were here before.  That is a considerable divergence and may be a sign that volatility in general is on the rise.  The bulls are in control until we have some sign they are not.  At this point about the only bull/bear pivot I can see is probably a close below the 18 DMA.  Lets see if the bulls can overcome resistance or not over the holiday period.


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