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Monday, November 24, 2014

Daily update 11/24

That was certainly a snoozefest.  Apparently everybody was waiting around for somebody else to do something first.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

If I counted the days right this is the 27th straight day above the 5 DMA which is a new all time record.  You have just witnessed history being made.  Obviously that will not last forever.  What happens when the streak ends?  Today was a record high close also.  On that record high close we had 163 new highs and 18 new lows.  The new highs remain very low.  So does intraday volatility.  We had a whopping 5 point range after the open. The 14 day historical volatility has gotten down to the lowest point in this entire bull market.  It seems unlikely to stay this low for much longer.  Whether we go up or down from here the daily range is likely to increase somewhat in the near future.  Today the market was back in equilibrium, just at a slightly higher level.  The question remains are we really heading higher in a serious manner or are we making the infamous megaphone top.  Technical divergences still remain.  Of course if we keep going up they will clear up.  If this is going to be a top I think it should turn down here very soon.  Many more up days and it should start to clean up the technical pattern.   Since we had a narrow range bar today breaking the low could induce some selling.  The next key level below is 2040.

Here is an interesting chart I ran across today.  It is a long term look at the Rydex bull/bear asset ratio. 

Friday saw a surge in the ratio well above even the 2000 high.  What I find most interesting is the middle part of the last decade.  Wall Street has been touting this bull market as the most hated bull market in history.  This ratio suggests the last bull market was much less loved then this one.  This year is showing a congestion pattern on this ratio just like we saw in 2000 at that top.  Is anybody left to buy?


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