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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 10/15/20

? 10/21/20

Up 10/13/20

Short term

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Daily update 11/19

No follow through from yesterday.  Here is a look at the SPX daily chart.


SPX pulled back this morning and dipped briefly below the trend line and yesterday's low.  The dip buyers stepped in and pushed SPX all the way back to slightly green before a little more selling took over.  Today is unequivocally bullish if SPX closes above yesterday's high.  That would indicate a successful test of prior resistance.  However, this action left us with a hanging man candle.  With price extended that could be an indication of a short term top forming.  Breadth was 62% negative.  There were 85 new highs and 57 new lows.  One day off of all time highs those numbers should worry bulls.  Another warning sign comes from IWM.


IWM closed below Monday's low.  That day was a downside follow through day from the reversal pattern last week.  Today turned the short term trend on IWM down.  Are the bears taking charge again?  The COMPX was also weaker then SPX.  Today looked like more rotation to safety. 

With IWM already turning down SPX looks a little precarious here.  The bulls need to take charge and push SPX to close above yesterday's high tomorrow.  A failure to do that is likely to lead to more weakness.  The McClellan oscillator crossed negative today and the 10 DMA breadth lines are almost there.  Downside follow through tomorrow should confirm a short term top is in place.  The strongest support is probably 2010.  Below that is the 50 and 100 DMAs around 1975.  Who shows up tomorrow the bulls or the bears?

This is a very interesting article.  It is a bit long by internet standards, but worth a few minutes to review.  The Beginning of the End of the Fossil Fuel Revolution (From Golden Goose to Cooked Goose)

Here is an interesting chart to ponder.

Every measure of internal market strength I know about shows massive negative divergences.  Maybe it is nothing, but what if it is something.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.