If you would like an email sent to you when I update the blog please send an email with "subscribe" in the subject line to traderbob58@gmail.com. To be removed use "unsubscribe".

Search This Blog or Web

Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 10/26/20

? 10/28/20

? 10/26/20

Short term

Dn 10/26/20

Dn 10/27/20

Dn 10/26/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Daily update 9/16

Well, we did not get the new normal gap up on pre-FED day, but they came out and bought the gap down.  Here is the daily SPX chart.


SPX closed fractionally above the 18 SMA.  Today relieved the modest oversold condition we had.  I think today's action was primarily headline driven.  There was talk that the FED's mouthpiece said the "considerable period"  language will still be there tomorrow.  There was also talk of liquidity injections in China.  Often news induced moves end up getting reversed.  We will have to wait and see if that is the case this time.  Here is a look at the futures chart.


Here we are with a green price bar again.  Every other time that has happened in Sept. they sold it the next day.  Will it be different this time?  Breadth was 62% positive.  New highs were a whopping 47 with 75 new lows.  That on a day when the Dow made a new intraday all time high.  It failed to close at a new high though.  Obviously internals left a lot to be desired for the bulls.  I think there was a lot of index positions put on and not so much in individual stocks.  That is consistent with a news driven move.

Yesterday the number of stocks above their 200 MA had a big whack.  Today that number only bounced back a little.  Market internals continue to weaken this month.  If the bulls don't get it together and break this thing out on the upside it is going to correct.  Tomorrow is FED day and often the market marks time until after the announcement.  I also find trying to predict what will happen after said announcement to be a waste of time.  Will the resistance above 2005 still be there if tested?  Will support in the 1980 area hold again if tested?  I am suspicious of the way the internals are falling apart that in the end we will head lower.  However, the market can jerk around for quite a while before finally deciding.  I am going to need to see true strength at the highs that indicates rally chasers are alive and well to change my mind.  The numbers of new highs are so low that just seems like the lower odds scenario.  Stranger things have happened I suppose.

Bob

No comments:

Important

The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.