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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 10/15/20

Up 10/9/20

Up 10/13/20

Short term

Up 10/5/20

Up 10/1/20

Up 9/30/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, August 22, 2014

Daily update 8/22

Pause day.  Here is the daily SPX chart.


SPX did not quite get to a new high today.  It tested yesterday's low and held so far.  Volume really, really dropped down to almost nothing.  So even though it was a down day there was very little selling pressure.  It is not surprising people hesitated to chase price here.  We are quite over bought short term.  I don't think today told us much.  Here is the futures chart.


The futures tested the support line twice today, but ended above it.  The uptrend line is coming up to meet price.  It should push price higher early next week or it will get broken.  Which will it be?  Lets take a closer look at IWM.


IWM acts like it has a magnet at the 50 DMA.  I marked out a little box denoting the battle zone.  It has to get above the 8/19 high or the 8/21 low to indicate the direction of the next move.  Inside that box is nothing but noise.  I don't think SPX is going to continue higher very far without IWM playing along.  I suspect this is the battle that will determine whether SPX ends up with a double top or not.  I will be watching this closely intraday next week.

SPX had trouble staying above 1880 in July.  Will it be able to do it this time?  The pundits have been crowing about the earnings growth for Q2.  If that does not drive us higher I am not sure what will.  There are some worrisome signs in the global economy.  Will that hold back the buyers?  I have lots of questions, but no answers.  One day at a time now.


Here is another eye opening chart on the lack of recovery in this recovery.


Apparently it is better to be older these days.  I can understand why some people wonder if we truly ever exited the great recession.  No other post WWII recovery has been like this.

The market and sector status pages have been updated.  Have a great weekend all.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.