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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 10/15/20

? 10/21/20

Up 10/13/20

Short term

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, June 27, 2014

Man made climate change

Pres. Obama has been really harping on the climate change lately.  We are constantly being told we must do something or face dire consequences.  What I get a kick out of the most is that the scientific reports almost always have their findings based on computer models.  Do you know why that is?  The reason is because the actual temperature data does not prove their case.  They must have a model they can fudge, LOL.  Lets look at some temperature graphs.  Al Gore made famous the so called hockey stick graph.  It usually looks something like this.


Pretty impressive looking isn't it.  Sometimes it all depends on where you start from.  Lets look at one that is a bit further back in time.


The second chart goes back another 1000 years and is in centigrade instead of Fahrenheit.   This chart doesn't look quite so scary does it.  The little ice age on this chart does not seem to show up right on the first chart.  I am not quite sure why that is.  There was much written about how cold that time period was in the history books.  We can also see quite a few up and down spikes long before man was burning fossil fuels.  Lets take a look at what has happened since the infamous Al Gore chart.



 We haven't actually got any warmer at all in the last 15 years.  Did we stop burning fossil fuels or something?  Now lets look back a little further yet.


Some of the alarmists talk about how melting the ice in Greenland will be catastrophic.  This is Greenland's temperature chart. This looks even less scary doesn't it.  Look at that massive warm up in temperature over 12000 years before we discovered oil.  But wait, there is more.  Lets go way, way back.

Throughout much of the last 400,000 years the earth has been much cooler then it is now.  It is also possible, maybe even probable, the current warm spell is over and we are headed for colder temperatures.  If man really is warming the planet, maybe we need to work harder at it.  If the planet is cooling it could get very difficult to feed the billions of people we have.  I don't know what all causes the bigger picture cycles.  It could be natural variations in the amount of heat the sun puts out and orbital mechanics of the planets.  There are so many things about our world we have very limited knowledge of.  One of those is climate.  The only thing we can say for sure is that it is always changing.  The one thing we cannot say for sure is whether man has any affect or not.  Governments are paying scientists to lie to us.  Why is that?

The reason I digressed on this subject is to make a point.  I question everything.  However, most people don't.  For most people if they hear something over and over they will believe it without ever getting any facts.  I just don't work that way.  I need proof.  Wall Street loves to pull the wool over people's eyes.  They often present data to prove a point that is often misleading.  Choosing starting dates that make their case is very common.  Sometimes they show some data, but not enough to actually make a conclusion because they know most people will just accept it without actually looking at it.  Most of the time they don't even show any data, they just make statements.  Everybody needs to question everything they hear from the market pundits.  Do not just blindly believe what you are told.  Your financial future may depend on it.

Bob



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