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Thursday, June 19, 2014

Daily update 6/19

Narrow range day.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

Today was a hanging man doji candle.  The lower tail isn't all that long so it probably is  a marginal hanging man.  Not much of a surprise to have a quiet day.  This is a big decision here.  Are people willing to push price higher or not.  The market may pause a little longer while it decides.  Lets have a look at the futures chart.

The futures are in a very tight range here at the highs.  I guess everybody is sitting around waiting for somebody else to make the first move. 

With the hanging man bar today a close below today's low (1952) is supposed to be bearish confirmation.  Whether that might spark a pullback remains to be seen.  Earlier in the year there was considerable bubble talk.  With this latest break out to new highs that talk seems to have turned into the possibility the market might melt up.  Of course that would only make the bubble more bubbly.  I can't read people's minds so I can't predict what happens next.  I can say the volume in advancing stocks on this rally is the lightest volume on any rally in this bull market by far.  The new highs are not particularly strong and neither is breadth.  That is what blow off type moves usually look like.  Very strong sentiment and weak technicals.  It seems to me the market has been melting up for the last 18 months or so.  How much more does it have in it?  I guess we will see.


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