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Monday, June 16, 2014

Daily update 6/16

Dip buyers and rally sellers ran into each other today with nobody willing to push price very far.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

SPX is hanging between the upper channel trend line support and the 6 SMA.  Which one breaks first?  Lets have a look at the futures chart.

We have an upper trend line established now with three points of contact.  We also have a lower trend line at the bottom of the range of the last two days.  This leaves us with what looks like a triangle formation.  In theory a break of the upper trend line should lead to a retest of the recent high.  A break of the lower line could send us back down toward the 1897-1902 SPX support area.  Unless tomorrow is a very narrow range bar we should decide which way.  There is a FED meeting on Wed. to announce the next bit of tapering.  If we don't decide tomorrow I would expect we would after that meeting.

Keep an eye on the global political situation.  One never knows if something will happen that causes a market reaction or not.  So far things have been very muted, but that can always change with new information.


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