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Thursday, June 12, 2014

Daily update 6/12

Dip buyers put their hands in their pockets again today.  Here is the SPX daily chart.

SPX came back to test the upper trend line we broke above on the ECB news.  SPX was down .71% for the day but only 59% of stocks were in the red.  The DJ15, XOI, and XAU indexes were positive.  I would say the situation in Iraq was driving the action.  Will that be a one day thing and forgotten like Russia invading Crimea or will it become an excuse to take profits?  Trouble in the middle east may be more disturbing then Ukraine for some investors.  Hard to say.  Lets take a look at the futures chart.

Today was roll over day so I am switching to the Sept. contract.  That makes the difference between the futures and SPX a little different.  Last night I mentioned we were at a possible bounce point and that if the market was going to continue up it should be up and away early.  That did not happen and we broke below the 18 SMA instead.  There was enough selling pressure to cause a negative cross of the DI lines.  The short term trend is neutral now.  We did not make it down to the 50 SMA yet.  There is still another 10 points to go.  However, SPX was down about 30 points at today's low from the intraday all time high.  That may be enough to cause a bounce in the morning.  There is also the matter of that upper trend line on the SPX daily chart which could provide some support.

What happens tomorrow will depend on the news flow.  Global politics is always a bit hard to deal with in the market.  The Russian situation was kind of a panic sell everything day, but then it was over.  Today looked more like portfolio adjustments were being made.  That could mean we are in for something a little longer lasting.  This entire break out to new highs came on the lightest volume of this bull market.  I don't know how strong the market really is here.  We are going to have to see what develops.  Caution might be advised on the long side for the moment.


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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.