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Friday, May 9, 2014

Daily update 5/9

The Dow eked out a slight new high close.  It was the only major index to do that today.  It is now a whopping 7 points above the 12/31/13 high.  I wonder how much hoopla they can create in the media on that, LOL.  At this pace everybody will be rich enough to retire soon.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

SPX closed 12 points below its all time high close.  There were a whopping 15 new highs in SPX stocks.  On an up day this close to the highs that is really abysmal.  Across the NYSE there were only 64 new highs compared with 56 new lows.  This is not a healthy market.  SPX has a doji weekly bar showing indecision at major resistance.  Volume was light today.  Lets take a look at the SPY 60 minute chart.

SPY added another distribution bar this morning.  We are getting quite a few of those now.  The rally the rest of the day came on light volume.  Even the last bar push up to the close was light.  SPY closed once again above the 50 SMA.  Not a confirmed break, but then again does that really matter.  It has been confirming breaks in both directions and reversing.  I don't see anything in this chart that makes me believe it will stay up there this time.  Lets zoom way out and look at the monthly SPX chart.

Last month was a hanging man bar.  That means a monthly close below last month's low would be confirmation of the potentially topping bar.  Oddly Feb. and April were outside months.  There have only been two of those previously in this entire bull market Jan. 2010 and Oct. 2011.  It seems pretty odd to have two of them close together.  Recent outside days on the daily chart have been bearish.  Will these monthly bars turn out to have the same meaning?  The volume in March and April increased over the prior month despite not going anywhere.  That hints at distribution on this time frame.

This market looks about as tired as I have ever seen it.  We had almost as many new lows today as new highs with the Dow at an all time high close.  That just ain't right.  I suspect there will be an about face next week.  Bears need to see a break of the 50 DMA (1865).  Bulls need a hell of a break out to new highs with a lot of volume and a bunch of stocks making new highs.  That seems pretty unlikely to me.  I guess we will see.

The market and sector status pages have been updated.  Have a great weekend.


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