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Monday, May 19, 2014

Daily update 5/19

Friday's bounce continued today.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

SPX closed right at our familiar resistance line.  This was one of the lightest volume days of the year.  Not much conviction there.  Speaking of a lack of conviction SPX had 12 stocks making new highs.  We were in the 40s the last time we closed up here.  I am beginning to think we are going to hang out until there are no stocks making new highs.  Lets zoom in to the SPY 60 minute chart.

SPY found resistance at the 5/14 low (red line).  It is above the 50 SMA yet again.  The trading range continues for now.  The volume pattern is still mixed with big red and green bars.  We have a sizable crowd on both sides of the trade here.  The question is which group is the smartest.  The extreme low number of  new highs suggests it is the sellers who will be right.  Some day the range will be broken and we will find out.

This is getting rather boring.  We have the 50 DMA as support and 1885-1900 as resistance.  Internally each push up looks weaker to me.  Some kind of news event that sparks real buying is needed to break out on the upside.  I am not sure a catalyst is needed on the down side.  We are clearly running low on dip buyers.  They will run out without getting upside satisfaction soon.

I can't recall ever seeing the market look this tired before.  There is next to nothing holding it up.  What happens when it does go down?


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