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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

Up 1/29/21

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

?+ 4/23/20

?+ 4/30/21

Sub-Intermediate

Up 3/29/21

? 4/5/21

?- 5/10/21

Short term

Up 4/1/21

Dn 5/10/21

Dn 5/4/21


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Daily update 5/13

No follow through today.  Here is the daily SPX chart.


Today's bar looks a little like a shooting star.  The upper tail was not very long though.  SPX managed to close fractionally above the prior intraday all time high.  The breadth was 57% negative and there were only 143 new highs.  Poor internals continue.  After the 4/1 thrust bar to a new high the next day saw an increase in new highs.  Not the case today despite trading at a  new all time high over 1900.  Lets take a look at the SPY 60 minute chart.


After another gap up and a slight push higher in the first hour SPY pulled back a little bit and went sideways the rest of the day.  No sign of excited break out players piling in that I can see.  Will buyers show up in force tomorrow?

All market internals remain weak.  This could easily turn into another top.  The bulls need to come out and show some strength.  IWM was down over 1% today.  There just does not seem to be any real conviction by the bulls.  If that conviction does not show up very soon I suspect the bears will pounce.  The market is clearly vulnerable at the moment.  A close below today's low would be slightly bearish.  A close back below 1885 resistance would indicate a failed break out and could bring on some selling.  This is May and we have an obvious triple top staring at us.  Below the 50 DMA (1867) the market could get some serious selling.  I don't see anything that gives the bulls an all clear yet.  We need to see some significant upside follow through and a surge of new highs.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.