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Monday, April 28, 2014

Daily update 4/28

The selling into strength continued.  However, the buying of the dip also continued.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

I marked today with a yellow arrow and a question mark because SPX came up fractionally short of another outside day, but SPY made one easily.  I don't know if it has the same bearish intent the other days did or not.  SPX dipped below the 50 SMA before buyers stepped in and pushed the market back up through it.  There was a lot of volume today for some reason.  Are emotions picking up a bit?  SPX closed above the 50 DMA and the 18 SMA, but below Friday's high.  Lets zoom in on the SPY 60 minute chart.

SPY tried twice today to get across the 50 SMA, but failed to do so.  Volume was elevated all day which is quite unusual.  The last two days we have a little bit of a mix with big green and red volume bars.  The pattern is not very clear looking.  However, so far price is making lower lows and highs.  Until that changes we have to assume the bears are slightly in control. 

The bounce came as IWM hit its 200 DMA and SPX got slightly below its 50 DMA.  The dip buyers are clearly still out in force.  However, the people selling into strength are also still around.  Exactly how big of a hammer do they have?  If dip buyers dry up will the rug be pulled out from under the market?

Most every Tuesday has been up this year, but that has been somewhat widely publicized by Bespoke now.  I don't know if that will continue to work or not.  The bulls still need that confirmed upside break of the SPY hourly 50 SMA and the bears need SPX to break below the 50 DMA.  In between it is slop.


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