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Friday, April 25, 2014

Daily update 4/25

I ran across an interesting tid bit and forgot to put it in last night.  Check out U.S. Warns Money Managers of More Russia Sanctions .  For those pressed for time here is a snippet.

The Obama administration told asset managers last week that it was planning additional sanctions against Russia over the conflict in Ukraine. Officials from the Treasury Department and the National Security Council met in Washington with mutual-fund and hedge-fund managers, according to a person who attended. Their comments sent a message that more sanctions are on the way and that investors, if they were concerned about the impact, should manage that risk, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the discussions weren’t public.

You are a money manager of your own finances.  You have been warned.  Manage your risk.

The outside day warning worked again.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

SPX closed below the low of the outside day which is supposed to set a new short term trend.  That was not the case back in Jan., but for the other three cases it was.  I suspect that will be the case this time.  SPX closed just above the 18 SMA as the bulls came out to support the market in the afternoon.  As with all turning points follow through is key here.  The bears fired a shot, next week we will see what the bulls response is.  The 18 and the 50 are pretty close together here.  If the bounce is going to continue we should be up and running on Monday.  Lets zoom in to the SPY 60 minute chart.

SPY is attempting to hold the 200 SMA.  We got a confirmed break of the 50 this afternoon.  That increases the pressure on the bulls to make a stand.  Volume was not especially heavy today, but heavier then yesterday.  That adds some validity to the move.  I want to show the NDX tonight.

NDX has a potential head and shoulders top.  The current bounce appears to have failed at the 100 SMA.  The neckline and the 200 SMA are in close proximity.  That should be key support. Today it is showing weakness that looks like there should be follow through on the down side to the 200.  This was about the only stock index I know of that was showing a positive divergence with the Dow and SPX in March of 2009.  This is a very important index watched by many people.  What happens here is extremely important.   The next chart is the weekly SPX.

We have 2 gravestone doji bars in the last four weeks.  Both were on increased volume.  That looks a little bearish to me.  Lets take a look at the TLT daily.

TLT attempted to break out above the key reversal day high, but failed to stay there.  That leaves a gravestone doji on a retest of a key level.  This chart is a bit suspicious on the long side, but it still needs to get below the key reversal day low to be bearish.  I found this interesting cycle chart of 30 year interest rates.  Check it out.


This is a look at a 93 week cycle active since 2000.  I have to say it lines up pretty well.  Are we in for another big move in rates.  Going down into the line should mean a turn up if it is going to work again.  Combined with the suspicious looking TLT daily chart I could see that might happen.  As I warned the other day if rates rise again watch any rate sensitive stocks you own.

For Monday the bulls need to get a confirmed break of the SPY hourly 50 SMA on the upside.  The bears need to get SPX to close below the 50 DMA (1858).  In between we are in limbo on whether the market has really turned down or not.

The market and sector status pages have been updated.  Have a great weekend.


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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.