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Thursday, April 24, 2014

Daily update 4/24

I guess even an AAPL earnings beat was not enough to conquer resistance.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

SPX earns another yellow arrow.  As a refresher, those arrows mark the outside days we have had this year.  As you can see none of them were short term bullish.  The last three led to multi day pullbacks.  I find these days very curious.  They all happened around relative highs.  They are very rare in the index.  I have been doing this a long time and I have never seen anything like this.  We have had enough upside gaps that we should probably be 100 points higher just on the gaps this year.  I think this market is extremely heavy and is just sucking in the last buyers.  Here is the SPY 60 minute chart.

SPY closed right at the 18 SMA.  The outside day happened in the first hour.  How odd.  This chart looks ready to roll over to me.  We still have not gotten a confirmed break of the 18 though.  The bulls have been holding prices up, but we clearly have significant resistance here.  Apparently earnings so far are not good enough to inspire people to push prices higher. 

Do we get a confirmed break of the hourly 18 SMA tomorrow or do the bulls try to push it higher again?  A confirmed break would be an hourly close below 187.44.  You are on your own on the long side here.  I see no level that is safe.

SPX has an apparent triple top forming on the daily chart.  Price tightened up in March then expanded in April.  That is usually associated with a meaningful reversal..  I have to think that a pullback here will be significant.  Stay tuned.


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