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Thursday, April 17, 2014

Daily update 4/17

A little more upside, but some profit taking into the close.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

SPX closed higher today which confirms the intermediate trend flip to up.  However, this really looks pretty shaky.  Sometimes at important turning points it will flip back and forth some before the big move starts.  At this point a close back below 1858 will flip it back down again.  That is not much cushion.  Breadth was 57% positive and there were 129 new highs.  Not a lot of strength in the internals.  Here is a look at the SPY 60 minute chart.

SPY closed below the 6 SMA for the first time since this bounce began late in the day.  After the last bounce that was the end of the rally and was the start of another dump.  Is that going to happen again? 

Now that a little profit taking came in at the end of the day we may finally get a test of this bounce next week.  The COMPX and the Russell2000 are both still below their 100 DMAs.  They were leading indexes all last year.  They could easily drag down SPX if they resume their slides.  Like last night the early warning sign for SPX is the 18 DMA (1858).  The more important level is the 50 DMA (1851).

I don't know what is going to happen next week.  The SPX daily chart looks really unstable to me and we could see another sharp reversal to the downside.  I don't know what to tell you on the upside.  I want to see some selling pressure come into the market and make sure it does not collapse.

The market and sector status pages have been updated.  Have a great weekend all.  Happy Easter to those that it applies to.


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