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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

Up 1/29/21

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

?+ 4/23/20

?+ 4/30/21

Sub-Intermediate

Up 3/29/21

? 4/5/21

?- 5/10/21

Short term

Up 4/1/21

Dn 5/10/21

Dn 5/4/21


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, March 14, 2014

VIX

Lets take a look at the weekly VIX chart.


Since 2012 the VIX has been rejected at the weekly 200 SMA.  Never once making a weekly close above that line.  SPX went to new bull market highs from each of those lows.  The VIX was once again rejected at the 200 in early Feb. and SPX did indeed make new highs.  However, look at the VIX chart closely.  The 6 SMA is still above the 18.  This is the first time in this entire bull market that SPX made a new high with the VIX weekly chart crossed like that.  The closest to that was in July 2011 when SPX was making the right shoulder of the head and shoulders top it made that year. SPX made a lower high then crashed.  We can clearly see the VIX did not get down into the 12 range like it did on rallies over the last two years.  We have not had a very big VIX spike since 2011.  It may be time for another one.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.