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Friday, March 28, 2014

Daily update 3/28

Don't just stand there, sell something.  Join the crowd.  It seems everybody else is doing it.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

Yesterday we confirmed the break below the 18 SMA.  Today SPX rallied up and over the 18 just a bit, but found its high early in the day and sold off all the way back to the open.  The dip buyers stepped in late in the day to hold the market up into the close.  As expected the trend indicator flipped back down today.  The action would seem to confirm the 18 SMA is now resistance.  This was an extremely strong open.  At the high 80% of stocks were up on the day.  Despite that strength the market folded.  There were only 70 new highs.  Nobody is sticking their neck out to buy stocks at their highs.  The volume declined considerably today.  The pump and dump operation continues.  Lets zoom in to the SSO 60 minute chart.

SSO popped its head above the 50 SMA early this morning.  However, the sellers came out in force and sent it back down.  We have support at the green line and resistance at the 50 SMA.  Watch for a break of one of those lines for the next move.  Obviously I am looking for the down side break.

Last year the NDX 100 and the Russell 2000 were major market leading indexes.  Check out these weekly charts.

Both these leading indexes are already down to their weekly 18 SMAs.  That would be 1828 on SPX.  Clear relative weakness.  Are they going to lead SPX lower just like they led it higher last year?

There were six more IPOs today.  The venture capitalists are selling like mad.  Corporate insiders are selling at the highest rate since 2007 and 2011.  The smartest people in the room are on the sell side.  I think the charts justify their actions.  What you choose to do with this information is up to you.  I suggest you do something.

Monday is the last day of the month.  Over the last few years I have noticed this day often has a negative bias.  If there is another overnight pump and dump we could end the day negative.  However, there has been a concerted effort by bulls to keep SPX positive on the year.  I think they showed up again this afternoon to stop the selling.  They may show up again on Monday to try and hold it into quarter end.  Tough to tell.  Come April I expect the sellers to win though.  There appears to be considerable supply here.  The morning buyers keep getting hit over the head.  You have to think they will stop buying soon.

The market and sector status pages have been updated.  Have a great weekend.


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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.