If you would like an email sent to you when I update the blog please send an email with "subscribe" in the subject line to traderbob58@gmail.com. To be removed use "unsubscribe".

Search This Blog or Web

Monday, March 31, 2014

Daily 3/31

Here we are again.  Lets take a look at the SPX daily chart.


Funny how that .786 retrace line keeps stopping the market.  Another light volume day.  There are still some glaring big red volume bars staring at us.  The intermediate trend flipped back to up today.  When it flips back and forth it usually means a big move is about to happen.  The price bar closed green for the first time since the last dip.  Both breadth indicators are also positive.  There were still only 134 new highs today.  Not many people willing to stick their necks out and buy stocks at the highs.  Lets zoom in to the 60 minute SSO chart.


Once again we gapped up near the highs and chopped around the rest of the day.  It looks a lot like other days in this same area.  Still plenty of supply to keep the market in check today.  What happens tomorrow?

I am pretty sure I have never seen anything like this before.  Six of the last seven days have started with big gaps to the upside.  However, in that seven days SPX is .33 points higher then when it started happening.  Not 33 points .33 points, LOL.  If the market wanted to go up we would be 40-50 points higher by now.  We have done just about that many points in the gaps.  That indicates there is supply in this area.  The highest close of the month occurred way back on 3/7.  It looks like a lot of churning to me.  At the highs that is usually a top.  I guess we will see.

For tomorrow it is put up or shut up time.  Every other close above 1870 since the 3/7 high has been followed by a down day.  However, this is the first time the daily chart has a green price bar and both breadth indicators positive.  There is no excuse now.  If the bulls don't show up tomorrow and break this market out to the upside I don't think it is going to.  My guess is that won't happen.  I think a close back below SPX's 18 DMA (1863) will initiate a pullback. 

Bob

No comments:

Important

The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.