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Friday, February 21, 2014

Daily update 2/21

It looks like 1840 resistance is just plain tough to crack.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

The market tried to rally today, but kept getting whacked back down a bit.  Early in the day the dip buyers dutifully bought the whacks and sent SPX to a new high for the day.  The bears struck again and it was rinse and repeat until the afternoon.  The bears started whacking before SPX got back to a new high for the day.  The market sold off going into the close as the dip buyers put their hands in their pockets.  SPX has been trying to conquer 1840 for almost two months now.  At this point I think it will take some really good news.  Bad economic news in the hopes of more QE is not going to cut it.  That only seems to work up to 1840.  Look at those daily bars.  If that chart was upside down I would say there was about an 80% chance of making a low.  All that is needed to complete the pattern is downside follow through.  Lets have a look at the SPY 60 minute chart.

On this time frame most of the big volume bars are green.  There is no shift to distribution here.  However, price looks like a possible double top.  SPY closed below the 18 SMA, but it does not have a confirmed break.  This chart looks in position to turn down.  The power is up for grabs.  Lets have a look at the 195 minute chart.

There is a couple of big red volume bars on this time frame.  The pattern is mixed and not clearly bullish like the 60 minute chart.  We ended the day with the first red price bar since this rally began.  This chart is also in position to turn down.  Lets have a look at the SPX weekly chart.

We had a doji bar this week.  The last time we had a doji bar at this level we sold off hard the next week.  Will it be different this time or not?

We still have clear resistance at 1840.  The intraday charts are starting to turn down.  If rally chasers don't show up soon we are likely to turn down again.  Any lower daily close is likely to set it off.

The market and sector status pages have been updated.  Have a great weekend all.


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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.