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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

Up 1/29/21

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

?+ 4/23/20

?+ 4/30/21

Sub-Intermediate

Up 3/29/21

? 4/5/21

?- 5/10/21

Short term

Up 4/1/21

Dn 5/10/21

Dn 5/4/21


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, February 14, 2014

Daily update 2/14

Bounce continues.  Here is the daily SPX chart.


That is one heck of a V bottom.  SPX closed 11 points from its all time high.  That close to the high you have to think it will act as a magnet and we will get there next week.  However, breadth indicators are getting very over bought and price is getting extended from the 18 SMA.  I am not too sure there will be a lot of buyers lining up to buy the highs.  Some short covering could push price higher for a bit.  The lagging indexes continued to lag today.  There were 150  new highs which is the best yet.  However, that is still low with price this close to the high.  It was barely better then yesterday.  If we break out to a new high we could see a surge that day.  However, we need to see days over 200 regularly if the market is going to continue higher in a sustained fashion.  Lets have a peak at the SPY 60 minute chart.


SPY closed the last remaining gap today.  It remains very extended from the 50 SMA.  At the moment nothing matters.  The market seems to have an agenda to get to the highs.  There is no significant resistance between here and there that I can see.

I don't know how this is going to work out.  SPX is within spitting distance of its high, but the market is in an extreme short term over bought condition.  We clearly have lots of momentum at the moment.  I want to ride it as long as I can, but I don't want to overstay.  This looks like a final blow off move to me.  I definitely do not want to step in front of it and try to fade it.  You never know how far it will carry.  Will we make new highs before SPY breaks the hourly 18 SMA?  Whichever happens first pay very close attention to how the market reacts.  If this is a blow off move it could reverse pretty strongly. 

The market and sector status pages have been updated.  Have a great weekend.

Bob 

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.