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Monday, December 9, 2013

Daily update 12/9

A very narrow range doji day on SPY.   Here is the daily SPX chart.

SPX still has a white price bar indicating the very short term trend is neutral.  SPY closed a little below the open so there was not exactly a mad rush in to buy during the day.  The intra day range got very small again just like when we got above 1800 before.  Lets look at the 60 minute SPY chart.

Early in the day every other bar was in a different direction.  They sold the opening gap up, then they bought the dip, then they sold the rally, then they ...  You get the picture.  The price acted the same way it did when we got above 1800 before.  People are willing to buy the dip, but people were not willing to push price into new high ground.  Whether that changes some time this week remains to be seen.  This chart could be either a cup and handle pattern or a double top.  The resolution will be determined by whether people become willing to push price higher or not.  Even though SPX closed at a slight new high both breadth indicators remain negative.  There were 156 new lows and 65 new highs.   For a new closing high the number of highs is low and the number of lows is high.

So here we are.  SPX is sitting above 1800 with weak market internals.  Is it topping or is it going to race higher?  That all depends on rally chasers showing up.  That is something I can't predict.  I don't know how long they have to show up either.  At some point if we stall for too long then short term traders are likely to bail and start the ball rolling down hill again.

Chart practice has been updated with CLF the stock tonight.


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