Daily update 12/6

That is what I get for making a prediction, LOL.  Last night I wrote "I think it is likely we have a big down day if the number comes in strong."  It is hard to get much more wrong then that.  I want to start out with the weekly SPX chart this time.

This has a really odd look.  There are two hanging man candles on either side of a very narrow range bar.  This is either an important top or a good consolidation to launch higher from.  Now lets look at the daily chart.

SPX ended the day back in the area where it has had a hard time finding buyers.  Will there be rally chasers to push price higher this time?  There is a possible head and shoulders top pattern on the daily chart now.  If it rolls over again and closes back below 1800 I think it will break the neckline and consummate the top.  Despite the big gap up there were 100  new lows with only 139 new highs.  I was quite surprised to see so many lows today.  My watchlist also had a lot of red in it for such a strong day.  Some market leading stocks like NFLX, SINA, TSLA and AAPL for instance.  It is hard to say the day was as strong as it might appear.  Since we gapped above 1800 I don't think closing above that level is as clearly bullish as it would have been had we traded up and through.  With the big gap up after five down days there was probably plenty of weak hand shorts covering to hold the market up today.  I want to see evidence that people are willing to push prices higher.

Since the big gap up was a news induced move it is a bit hard to say if it is lasting or not.  Quite often news induced moves are reversed.   I think there is definitely a chance the market rethinks what that employment number might mean for taper.  The FED said it was a close call in Sept.  With the shutdown in progress at the Oct. meeting there was no way they would taper.  But what about now.  We have had some good data.  I even hear leaks that a budget agreement is close in Washington.  The FED has cover to begin to taper at the Dec. meeting if they truly want to.  I don't know if it is just talk or not.  I guess we will find out.

For next week I will be watching 1800 on the down side.  If we close back below that I think it will increase selling pressure and slow down the dip buyers.  The neck line of the potential head and shoulders top is in 1777-79 area.  Breaking down below that activates that pattern and it seems likely that SPX will break the key 1775 level. 

Bob