After two consolidation days the bulls were back for more. Statistically the first two days of the new year have a positive bias. Does that explain the SPY 60 minute chart?
Look at all that volume on the last bar. Some people must believe we will start out positive. The VIX was up some more today, but did fall going into the close. I guess there was more hedging going on. If the market continues up on Thurs. the VIX pop could provide some upside fuel if people pull off hedges. As long as SPY stays above the hourly 50 SMA the bias is up.
TLT broke down to new lows today. Here is the daily chart.
TLT closed below the lower trend line for the second time in three days. However, it was well off the low. It really is trying as hard as it can to hold on here. I would like to see a close below today's low for confirmation of the break down. If you own interest rate sensitive assets this is something that should be monitored closely. This has been a long consolidation and should support a big move. We shall see.
I want to wish everybody a happy, healthy and prosperous new year,
Bob
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