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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

Up 1/29/21

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

?+ 4/23/20

?+ 4/30/21

Sub-Intermediate

Up 3/29/21

? 4/5/21

?- 5/10/21

Short term

Up 4/1/21

Dn 5/10/21

Dn 5/4/21


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Daily update 12/31

Well that was quite a year.  We opened on the low and closed on the high.  You don't see that very often.  Here is the daily SPX chart.


After two consolidation days the bulls were back for more.  Statistically the first two days of the new year have a positive bias.  Does that explain the SPY 60 minute chart?


Look at all that volume on the last bar.  Some people must believe we will start out positive.  The VIX was up some more today, but did fall going into the close.  I guess there was more hedging going on.  If the market continues up on Thurs. the VIX pop could provide some upside fuel if people pull off hedges.  As long as SPY stays above the hourly 50 SMA the bias is up.

TLT broke down to new lows today.  Here is the daily chart.


TLT closed below the lower trend line for the second time in three days.  However, it was well off the low.  It really is trying as hard as it can to hold on here.  I would like to see a close below today's low for confirmation of the break down.  If you own interest rate sensitive assets this is something that should be monitored closely.  This has been a long consolidation and should support a big move.  We shall see.

I want to wish everybody a happy, healthy and prosperous new year,
Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.