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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

Up 1/29/21

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

? 3/26/21

Sub-Intermediate

Up 3/29/21

?- 4/5/21

? 4/1/21

Short term

Up 4/1/21

Up 4/5/21

Up 4/1/21


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Thursday, December 19, 2013

Daily update 12/19

Snooze fest.  SPX acted just like it did the prior two times we crossed 1800.  Here is the daily chart.


We did not get the higher close to confirm the trend flip today.  There was a small gap down at the open and people rushed in to buy.  However, as price neared yesterday's close the rally just stopped.  Every time it sold off just a bit people rushed in to buy the dip.  The dip buyers are all waiting for somebody else to push price higher.  So far the somebody else has not shown up.  This is the same problem we had before when up here.  We will have to wait and see if rally chasers show up over the next few days.  Lets zoom in to the 60 minute SPY chart.


Notice the 50, 100 and 200 SMAs are all bunching up together.  That is how long this market has been going sideways.  It is coiling up for a sustained move.  There were 168 new highs and 85 new lows.  That was more new lows then yesterday. That really surprised me.  This is way to many new lows when at all time highs.  Regardless of whether we go higher in the short term or not the new low data is a problem for longer term.  This market is still in a topping phase that has been going on since May.  They generally take 5-9 months so we are getting pretty well along. 

I don't know what happens here.  I am inundated with pundits telling me stocks are set to go higher.  However, until they actually do go higher we can't know if they will go higher.  Just look at that 60 minute chart.  We get up here and stop.  Some people have to step up to the plate and be willing to push price higher.  If everybody sits and waits for somebody else to do it we will just sit here until the short term traders loose their patience and sell.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.