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Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Daily update 11/20

Another down day.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

The market was up slightly before the 2 PM release of the FED meeting minutes.  I guess it was something they said.  This was a news induced down day.  The question is was the news lasting and important or just a temporary move that will be reversed.  We will have to wait and see for that answer.  SPX is still above the key 1775 level.  There were 73 new highs and 66 new lows.  That is the most new lows since the 10/9 low.  Interest rates spiked up after the meeting minutes came out so the increase in new lows could rate related.  GLD also sold off.  That combination would make me believe that people are once again worrying about the FED tapering.  Lets take a look at the SPY 60 minute chart.

There was a really big volume bar after the minutes came out.  SPY is now below its 50 SMA, but has not confirmed the break with a lower close bar.  An hourly close back above the 50 could put the bulls back in charge.  An hourly close below that break bar's low would confirm the break of the MA and put the bears in charge for the moment.

Last night I showed a couple of market internal indicators that show the market is the weakest it has been at the highs all year.  Actually it is the weakest it has been at any high in this bull market.  If taper fear gives people a real reason to sell the weakened condition could exaggerate the move down.

Tomorrow is likely to be important.  If the bears show up again the key 1775 level seems likely to give way to me.  That should confirm another short term top is in place.

Chart practice has been updated with JOY the stock tonight.


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