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Thursday, October 10, 2013


It has been a long time since I have looked at GLD and GDX on the blog.  The trouble is that the charts are not exactly providing easy trades lately.  The bounce from the oversold condition garnered a lot of believers in the gold community at first.  I saw many declarations that the bottom for gold was in.  I think some of that support is wavering a bit now.  Here is the daily GLD chart.

The initial rally looks a lot like an ABC correction pattern.  Since the C high GLD has moved stealthily down.  Kind of like a trend move.  A break below the B low would likely accelerate the move down.  That would likely spark a retest of the summer low and possibly new lows.

Here is a look at GDX.

GDX has a very similar pattern only it is closer to the summer low.  It has been leading GLD down for a long time.  Is it doing it again?  These stocks have had a terrible year.  I wonder if they might experience some tax loss selling in Nov.  If that turns out to be the case GDX could provide a good buying op in late Nov. or early Dec.  In the mean time I don't see anything to get excited about on the long side.


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