It has been a long time since I have looked at GLD and GDX on the blog. The trouble is that the charts are not exactly providing easy trades lately. The bounce from the oversold condition garnered a lot of believers in the gold community at first. I saw many declarations that the bottom for gold was in. I think some of that support is wavering a bit now. Here is the daily GLD chart.
The initial rally looks a lot like an ABC correction pattern. Since the C high GLD has moved stealthily down. Kind of like a trend move. A break below the B low would likely accelerate the move down. That would likely spark a retest of the summer low and possibly new lows.
Here is a look at GDX.
GDX has a very similar pattern only it is closer to the summer low. It has been leading GLD down for a long time. Is it doing it again? These stocks have had a terrible year. I wonder if they might experience some tax loss selling in Nov. If that turns out to be the case GDX could provide a good buying op in late Nov. or early Dec. In the mean time I don't see anything to get excited about on the long side.
Bob
Trend table status
Trend | SP-500 | R2000 | COMPX |
Primary | Up 7/31/20 | ?- 3/31/20 | Up 5/29/20 |
Intermediate | Up 10/2/20 | Up 8/21/20 | Up 10/9/20 |
Sub-Intermediate | ? 1/4/21 | ? 1/4/21 | ?+ 1/4/21 |
Short term | ? 12/11/20 | ? 1/4/21 | Up 11/24/20 |
Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

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