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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

Up 1/29/21

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

? 3/26/21

Sub-Intermediate

Up 3/29/21

?- 4/5/21

? 4/1/21

Short term

Up 4/1/21

Up 4/5/21

Up 4/1/21


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Thursday, October 3, 2013

Daily update 10/3

SPX barely closed below the 50 DMA.  This is a new low for this pullback.  Here is the daily SPX chart.


The market sold off hard early on and tested the 9/30 low.  There was a furious rally intraday that seem to come from news.  That rally started to fizzle going into the close.  This really looked like the first time people were anxiously selling.  Today might really have been the start of the correction.  The bulls have really been trying to support the market around that key 50 SMA, but they have been unable to get any traction.  Can you blame them.  This is a difficult environment to put new money to work.  Lets zoom in to the SPY 60 minute chart.


The 60 thru the 195 minute charts had blue bars mid day at the low.  With the market in a short term over sold condition the bulls were able to spark a rally on the test of the 9/30 low.  There was one high volume up bar, but after that it traded sideways the rest of the afternoon with a bit of a dip into the close.  This looks like just an oversold bounce and not the start of a rally.  I think the path of least resistance is still down.

There is considerable differences amongst the major indexes.  Some were already below their 50 DMAs while others like the NASDAQ were still at the highs.  It was those indexes at the highs that kept fear from coming into the market.  If those indexes start to break down and join the bear's party things could accelerate a bit.

Bob


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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.