Daily update 10/30

That was interesting.  After the last FED meeting where no change was made to QE gold, bonds and stocks all went up.  After today's meeting with again no change in QE gold, bonds and stocks all went down.  Hmm.  The market topped at both the May and Sept. FED meetings.  Will it do it again?  Here is the daily SPY chart.

SPY shows a key reversal day on heavy volume.  IWM had an even more bearish looking reversal bar.  Will the market follow through on the down side or was this just another buying op?  Lets zoom in to the SPY 60 minute chart.

SPY broke the lower channel trend line and closed below the 18 SMA.  However, it has not confirmed that break by closing below the break bar low.  The last two times that never happened as the market rallied the next day.  Maybe the third time will be different.  So for tomorrow SPY should either confirm the break by an hourly close below 175.66 or climb back above the 18 SMA.  I would expect some follow through in either case.  Sometimes what happens on FED day is reversed the next day and sometimes not.  With the over bought nature of the market and the reversal bars we had today down side follow through could be significant.   If we head down tomorrow it might be a good time to raise some cash and/or hedge long positions.  I have never seen a more complacent market environment that nothing bad can happen.  That usually is when it does. 

Bob