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Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Daily update 10/29

The song remains the same.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

That is a pretty steep climb going there.   The NASDAQ and the Russell2000 have stalled out.  Take a look at the SPY 30 minute chart.

This last leg up is a very tight trend channel.  I think that is the tightest trend channel on SPY I have ever seen.   It looks like nobody is in a hurry to take profits the last few days.  That usually ends with a big down day as the short term traders all rush to the exits at the same time.  At one point this morning IWM, IYT, and QQQ were all red while SPY was staying positive.  Most of the time that would have dragged SPY down, but it didn't.  SPY held up and those other ETF's eventually rebounded into the close.  Today's strength may be related to the FED meeting tomorrow.  Once upon a time unless there was some really bad news the market would gap up on FED day.  The FED even put out a paper about to make it common knowledge.  I think that was an attempt to get it to stop happening.  When everybody knows something like that it tends to stop working.  I think we are starting to see a pattern of a rally the day before now.  I need to start paying a little closer attention to that.  Maybe the market has just changed the move to one day earlier, LOL.   It seems nobody expects the FED to do anything tomorrow.  That could make for a quiet day. 

The number of stocks above their 200 MA actually declined slightly today.  It is still at 56% which is very low at all time highs.  I don't see any sign the rally is broadening out yet.  I think that will need to happen at some point to keep price moving up.  In the short term I will still be watching the SPY hourly 18 SMA for a break. 


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