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Friday, October 25, 2013

Daily update 10/25

Kind of a mixed day.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

We ended the week right at Tuesday's high.  We really spent the last three days going nowhere.  The market remains over bought, but has not started a pullback yet.  A few indexes like the transports and the Russell200 were negative on the day.  The last rally lasted 15 days.  We are now at day 13.  If the pattern of each up move lasting a smaller number of days is to continue then this rally needs to end early next week.  If SPX makes new highs on day 16 that would at least be a small change in the pattern.  Lets take a look at the weekly chart.

SPX has a blue bar meaning it closed above the upper Bollinger band.  I marked the prior instances with arrows. The one marked with a yellow arrow is the only one that did not have its low tested in the next few weeks.  The rest caused a pause or a significant pullback.  The price action over the last few months is considerably different then any other time in this bull market.  There are a lot of rapid oscillations very unlike the rest of the chart.  Most of the time a blue week is followed by some downside testing.  Will that be the case again? 

All I heard this week was how the market can only go up while the FED is printing  This is so much like 2000 I can't believe it.  There really is no fear whatsoever.  Maybe everybody is right and the market just keeps going straight up forever.  I guess I will keep watching the hourly 18 SMA for a break just in case the market decides to pullback some year.

Chart practice has been updated with SINA the stock tonight.

The market and sector status pages have been updated also.
Have a great weekend all.


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