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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

? 1/4/21

? 1/4/21

?+ 1/4/21

Short term

? 12/11/20

? 1/4/21

Up 11/24/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Daily update 10/15

Deal or no deal?  The market fell apart late in the day when news broke of the talks in Washington breaking down.  Here is the daily SPX chart.


The volume picked up quite a bit today.  Just like the other two times SPX crossed 1700 it went up the next day then turned down.  The question now is this another short term top like those peaks or not.  The intermediate trend indicator turned down today.  SPX needs to close lower tomorrow to confirm the trend change.  Here is a look at the breadth chart.


Both the McClellan oscillator and the 10 DMA breadth lines had negative crossovers.  The VIX popped up considerably today as well. 

SPX appears to have turned back from the key .786 retrace level.  The VIX popping and breadth going negative would seem to indicate the market is turning down again.  If the market had reacted this way on its own without any news I don't think there would be much question about that.  SPX tested yesterday's high and turned back before the political news broke.  That indicates some hesitancy on the part of bulls to chase price above 1710.  However, until the news broke about the deal falling apart the selling was somewhat persistent but muted.  The breadth was pretty negative all day even when testing the highs.  That indicates there is a possibility that today's downward action was real and not fake based on the news.

The most new highs we have had on this rally was 185.  Both prior trips over the 1700 level saw new highs over 300.  That is quite a divergence and shows that the market is thinning out.  I don't know what is going to happen in Washington or exactly how that will affect the market.  The price action and internals seem to indicate the market may be turning down.  A close below the 18 DMA (1690) would go a long way in confirming that view.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.