If you would like an email sent to you when I update the blog please send an email with "subscribe" in the subject line to traderbob58@gmail.com. To be removed use "unsubscribe".

Search This Blog or Web

Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

Up 1/29/21

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

?+ 4/23/20

?+ 4/30/21

Sub-Intermediate

Up 3/29/21

? 4/5/21

?- 5/10/21

Short term

Up 4/1/21

Dn 5/10/21

Dn 5/4/21


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, August 16, 2013

Daily update 8/16

A little lower still.  This is the first over sold buy signal in over a year that did not mark the closing low.  Usually this signal will bounce within two days.  That means the bounce should start on Monday.  Warning.  If this market continues down next week it is likely to do so very violently.  This buy signal is a very short term oversold condition.  If the market does not bounce from that condition it usually means something is seriously bothering it.  The last time it failed to bounce was 7/29/2011.  The market really fell out of bed after that.  That was the debt ceiling debate so it was pretty clear what was bothering the market then.  If we fall out of bed here the most likely cause is probably the crashing bond market.  If that happens that could mean that yesterday's big gap down was a break away gap and is likely to go unfilled for a while.  We had a rather flat trading range at the highs so that is a price pattern conducive to a break away gap.  The jury is still out on that so next week is important.  Here is the daily SPX chart.


SPX is sitting right around the 50 SMA.  Will the bulls rally the troops for a bounce?  It started a bounce late in the day, but it failed to get any traction and sold off a bit going into the close.  Here is a look at the SPY 60 minute chart.


There was a rally bar late in the day on an increase in volume.  Even though the last bar did not follow through there is some potential for this pattern to be a bottom.  It needs follow through early on Monday.  It is still ambiguous at this point.

In The dilemma of major tops and bottoms I wrote "This bull market kicked off with a big gap up that was never filled.  Will it end with big gap down that goes unfilled?".  If yesterday's big gap turns out to be a break away gap it could have serious implications.  There are a lot of things consistent with the 2000 and 2007 tops.  We should know more next week.

Chart practice has been updated with NSC the stock tonight.
http://traderbob58-chart-practice.blogspot.com/

Have a great weekend all,
Bob

No comments:

Important

The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.