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Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Daily update 8/13

One of these days the market will decide.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

SPX closed fractionally above the 18 SMA.  It has what looks like a possible short term triple bottom over the last several days.  We clearly have dip buyers and rally sellers.  I guess the dip buyers are people that believe there will be no FED taper in Sept. while the sellers believe there will be.  Who will be right and who has the bigger hammer?  Lets look at the 60 minute SPY chart.

There were a few big green volume bars in late July I circled before the big gap up.  I fell asleep at the wheel and failed to notice that so I did not mention it.  So far that has not been the case lately.  The one big green volume bar we had was a big gap up that got sold immediately.  The bar closed above the prior days close so the volume bar was green, but I would not call that accumulation.  The last two times SPY got above the 50 SMA intraday it came to a stop. 

The volume suggests the bears might have the bigger hammer.  However, they have not been willing or able to break the market down.  It could be they are only looking to sell into strength which allows the dip buyers to buoy the market.  Are the bulls going to try to continue today's bounce tomorrow or will the bears strike back again?  Beats me.


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