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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Sentiment

The NAAIM survey took quite a tumble over the last few weeks.  Here is the current chart.


The latest survey came in at 34.  That is not quite as low as it was in the correction last spring.  There is upside fuel if the market rally takes hold.  However, it is in a zone that is not real over sold yet so there is still some room for the down side as well.  Money managers are showing some caution.  Will they get over it quickly like last year or is it going to persist longer this time?

Here is the latest Nova/Ursa ratio chart.


The current bounce has not had much strength on the upside yet.  The 14 MA is clearly negative, but it is still above the area of the Nov. low.  This is similar to the NAAIM survey in that there is fuel for the upside or the down side.

Both of these surveys are typical for a market correction.  Neither has quite reached particularly over sold levels.  The Nova/Ursa ratio is in real time so that will be the first one to signal a real rally.  That will involve having a few positive days together.  I will be watching for that, but so far not the case.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.