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Monday, June 24, 2013


The VIX touched its 200 week SMA this week.  Here is the weekly chart of the VIX showing the other times that happened in this bull market.

The green lines are instances where the VIX touched the 200 SMA, but did not end the week above it.  The red lines indicate the three times the VIX closed above its 200.  This week we touched it, but did not close above it.  The other three times that happened that was the week of the low and the market went on to new highs.  In early 2010 the VIX closed above its 200 and the market bottomed the next week and mounted a big rally.  The other two times the VIX closed above the 200 the correction in the market persisted for many weeks.

If history repeats for this bull market we should have made a weekly closing low last week.  If the VIX closes above the 200 this week then it will be different this time from any other correction in this bull market.  If we end higher this week, but break last weeks low before we make new highs that would also be different. It seems like every time I point out a pattern in this blog the market does something different.  Will that be the case again?


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