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Monday, June 3, 2013

VIX

Here we go again.  The weekly 6 SMA has crossed above the 18 SMA.  Here is the chart.


The yellow arrows mark the previous crossings in this bull market.  Last year's second cross saw a peak of only 23 in the VIX.  That was the lowest peak of any cross in this bull market.  The prior lowest peak was 27.  The VIX would seem to add to the other indications that we are in a correction type down move rather then just the short few day pullbacks we have been seeing.  If history is any guide the VIX is likely to cross above 20 before any prolonged rally begins.  It could always go a lot higher though.  It has not been above 30 in nearly a year and a half.  Is it time?  Only time will tell. Needless to say caution is advised on the long side.

Bob

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