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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, June 28, 2013

Some market internals

This first chart is the Nova/Ursa ratio.


This chart would seem to back up my idea that shorts have not run for cover yet.  So far on this rally the ratio was only slightly positive one day.  Without some strong positive values it will take quite some time for the 14 DMA to get positive.  Until that happens it is probable the correction is ongoing.

Here is the NYSE bullish percent chart.


The last leg down in SPX did quite a bit of technical damage to this indicator.  So far the bounce has not helped.  This indicator has already taken out the April low and is at the lowest level since last Nov.

Here is another way of looking at the percent of bullish stocks.  This is the number of NYSE stocks above their 200 DMAs.


This indicator has also broken the April low.  Now there are only 62% of the stocks above their 200.  It has made a bit of a recovery on this bounce.  It is still considerably lower then when SPX was last at this level before the recent break down.

Here is the put/call ratio chart.


The put/call ratio is up above the highs reached on every pullback since last May/June.  It is high enough to make a bottom.  Just be aware that it can go higher still.

There has clearly been technical deterioration in the market.  I don't see anything that is saying the sell off is over yet.  That can change pretty fast if the shorts decide to cover.  Until that happens we may still be headed lower.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.