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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Tuesday, June 4, 2013

New lows

The number of new 52 week lows shot up over 200 yesterday.  In this bull market we have had three other corrections where new lows crossed above 200.  Lets take a look at the charts.  The yellow arrows mark the day of the cross above 200.


The first occurrence was the day of the flash crash in 2010.  The market proceeded lower in the weeks ahead, but new lows never crossed above 200 again.  The next time it happened was in 2011.


During the correction in 2011, new lows got over 1000 twice.  The market moved considerably lower after the new lows crossed above 200.  Here is the chart for the 2012 instance.


This time it happened right near the low.  This is the only occurrence that did not see significantly lower prices in SPX.  Look at the days with the arrows in the previous three charts.  Do you notice anything they have in common?  Now lets look at the current chart.


Notice anything different this time?  By the time the new lows crossed over 200 in the previous three corrections price had traded below the 200 SMA.  This time we have not even traded below the 50 SMA yet.  Does that mean a lot of stocks have topped out and are starting to break down?  In the weeks leading up to the high we had many days of more then 400 new highs.  It seems very odd that we went from that much strength to seeing over 200 new lows with just this little bit of a pullback we have had so far.  This is definitely starting out different then other corrections in this bull market.  This seems like an extraordinary change of character in the market to me.  I have been saying I thought we were headed to the daily 50 SMA.  Now I think it is likely we are headed to the 200. 

Bob


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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.