The ratio of negative to positive guidance numbers are worse for this quarter then the last one. That one was really bad. The weak global economy is still taking a toll.
It is starting to look like earnings may be rolling over. Given the weak guidance in the first chart it does not look like the second quarter is going to turn this chart around. The move over the last year has been by valuation expansion, not increased earnings. The trailing 12 month P/E over the last year on the major indexes has gone up. The NASDAQ 100 went from 10 to 18. The SPX went from 15 to 18. The Russell 2000 went from 33 to 42. The Russell 2000 is clearly in bubble territory. The others are just on the high end, but not bubbly. It is clear the fundamentals have not kept up with the move up in prices though.
This is another one of those charts that makes it look like we are in a recession. Whether we are in a recession or not the economy has to be pretty weak. It certainly is not helping the global economy much now. Things appear to be getting weaker, not stronger like the pundits would have us believe.
Bob
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