There is a development in the high yield (aka junk bond) area. Lets look at how the high yield ETF HYG and SPX look together. Here is the first historical chart.
They actually track pretty well together. The risk on trade include stocks and high yield bonds. They both tend to cross their respective 200 MAs in close proximity in time. Lets move up to the current picture.
They continued with that same price relationship up until now. HYG has already dropped below its 200 SMA while SPX is still well above it. Is SPX going to follow HYG down? I have stated by the way the new high/low data was acting that we are likely headed to the 200 SMA for SPX. I think the action in HYG is suggesting that might be possible.
Bob
Trend table status
Trend | SP-500 | R2000 | COMPX |
Primary | Up 7/31/20 | ?- 3/31/20 | Up 5/29/20 |
Intermediate | Up 10/2/20 | Up 8/21/20 | Up 10/9/20 |
Sub-Intermediate | ? 1/4/21 | ? 1/4/21 | ?+ 1/4/21 |
Short term | ? 12/11/20 | ? 1/4/21 | Up 11/24/20 |
Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

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