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Friday, June 28, 2013

Daily update 6/28

That was some last 15 minutes today.  Month/quarter end and index rebalancing.  Even though SPX was down on the day I don't think the bears are in control.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

The bears tried to take control this morning with an early sell off.  However, SPY hit the 60 minute 50 SMA and the dip buyers came out in force.  There were several dips during the day, but the bulls stepped in and rallied the market every time.  I don't think the last minute shenanigans are indicative of the future direction.  With the price bar now green SPX is trying to turn up in the short term.  It needs confirmation with a higher close.  Lets zoom in to the 60 minute SSO chart.

The red resistance line is from the circled 6/20 high.  That big gap down is providing resistance so far.  There is quite a bit of price action around that line.  I think that is the line that shorts will cover if we break out above it.  The normal way this markets work these days is to gap up and over resistance.  It also has the tendency to gap up on the first trading day of the month.  Will that happen again?  If we do break out I would think SPX will at least test the 1650 area.  It might end up retesting the May high.  In VIX
 I wrote about how a rejection of the VIX at its weekly 200 SMA has resulted in new highs in the market every time in this bull market.  It looks like it got rejected pretty good this week.  Will history repeat again or now that I pointed out the pattern will it fail?  I guess we will see.  In the mean time as long as we stay above the hourly 50 SMA, buy the dip.

Chart practice has been updated with AAPL the stock today.

The market and sector status pages have been updated.

Have a great weekend all,

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