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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 8/14/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

?- 9/14/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Daily update 6/18

SPX touched the .618 retrace line.  Here is the daily chart.


The zone between the two red horizontal lines (.618 - .786) is where a lot of retests fail.  If SPX closes above the top red line then odds favor a new all time high.  There were 152 new highs and 55 new lows today.  That is a lot of new lows for an up day that was never down.  Here is the current breadth chart.


The light blue lines mark the closing Nov. low and the low of the recent pullback.  The breadth indicators looked very similar at both lows.  The yellow line marks the same number of days off the Nov. low as we are today.  The breadth indicators look very different this time.  The McClellan is still slightly negative and the 10 DMA lines just got a positive cross today.   The market is displaying much less strength this time.  Between that and the new lows staying elevated I believe the rally will fail.  It does not look like the start of a new leg up to me.

Tomorrow is the FED announcement.  I don't know what Bernanke is going to do.  I think any talk of tapering the QE will cause a sell off.  I don't see any indication they would increase it.  There has been much more chatter of late of the taper.  I guess we will see what happens.


Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.