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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 11/10/20

Up 11/4/20

Up 11/9/20

Short term

? 11/18/20

Up 11/5/20

? 11/18/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, June 14, 2013

Daily update 6/14

A little push back from the trend lines and the SPX daily 18 SMA.  Here is the daily chart.


SPX has been ping ponging between the 18 and 50 SMAs.  It is pretty close to the middle of that range tonight.  There were 80 new highs and 29  new lows today.  The TRIN was 1.69.  That is the first time the market was down on a high TRIN in quite some time.  Breadth was only mildly negative at 53%.  Those stats all look a little bullish for early next week.  Maybe a test of 1650 is coming up.  Here is the SPY 60 minute chart.


SPY turned back from the downtrend line.  However, after some initial selling it spent the afternoon consolidating above its 18 SMA.  This is also in the area of the 50 SMA.  It would not take much to get this going on the upside on Monday.

The bears only showed up halfheartedly today.   Either they have been vanquished or they are waiting for higher prices.  Here is the current breadth chart.


Both the 10 DMA and the McClellan oscillator are very negative.  That can provide some upside fuel.  This is the highest the 10 DMA of decliners has gotten without SPX closing below its 50 DMA in this bull market.  Most of the time the breadth gets this negative price is usually approaching the 200 DMA.  The selling is broad based, but no sign of panic.  The intraday swings are surely getting bigger.  Here is a snippet from a piece written by Mohamed A. El-Erian from PIMCO. Story

FORTUNE -- Those trading in many market segments would have noticed a subtle change last week: Volatility is on the rise, liquidity is getting tougher in certain places, correlations are morphing, and anxiety has increased. Moreover, rather than impact all market segments simultaneously, such dislocations seem to be cascading gradually from the least liquid to the more liquid ones

 I don't know what all markets he is talking about.  However, there is a lot of volatility going on in bond and currency markets worldwide.  I am sure most people know about the super volatility in Japanese stocks.  In the global markets we have today it seems volatility in one heavily traded market tends to proliferate around the world.  It remains to be seen if the volatility in Japan spreads out or not.

If the market continues higher next week it may just be some kind of retest of the high.  We will have to wait and see what kind of strength the internals show.  We could end up with a lot of negative divergences.  We have had an increase in volatility and a big increase in the number of new lows.  I just have a feeling we have not seen the end of this correction yet.

Chart practice has been updated with FSLR the stock tonight.
http://traderbob58-chart-practice.blogspot.com/

For those interested in the state of the economy here is a link with a bunch of interesting charts.
http://www.streettalklive.com/daily-x-change/1732-the-economy-in-pictures.html

Bob 

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.