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Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Daily update 6/11

Down it is I guess.  This market is amazing at closing downside gaps.  We have had quite a few over the last few weeks, but they keep closing them.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

SPX followed through on yesterday's trend flip to down.  It also closed back below the lower red channel line.  There were 257 new lows vs 37 new highs.  That is the most new lows so far in this correction.  The breadth was 85% negative while the trin was .84.  Up until the key reversal day every time the breadth was 70% or more negative the trin was 1.5 or higher.  The low trin with breadth that bad is showing a lack of panic selling.  That usually prolongs a move down.  That looks like a pretty clear rejection from the 18 SMA.  I would think we will end up testing the last swing low from this position. 

I thought this was interesting.

Global government bonds have just absorbed their seventh-worst month in 28 years, while bond funds suffered their biggest weekly redemption since the financial crisis.

Something is clearly bothering bond markets around the world.  Whatever it happens to be is not driving people to gold or equities so far.  The bond market has historically been pretty smart so when it is disturbed it is a good idea to pay attention.


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