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Friday, June 7, 2013

Current sentiment

The NAAIM survey took a tumble over the last couple of weeks.  Here is the chart.


This survey (51) is the lowest its been since the correction last spring.  Even lower then at the Nov. low when we were considerably further down in percentage terms then we are now.  This is a big drop from 77 last week.  That is a sign money managers are getting more cautious.  It will be important to see how they react if the market bounce continues.  Do they pile back in or remain somewhat cautious?  If they remain cautious it would be another sign we are in a correction.

Here is the II survey.


The bulls came down quite a bit this week.  The bears are only marginally higher and are still very low on an historical basis.  It is also well below the levels reached last year during the two bigger corrections.  After very long periods around 20% bears the market tends to have longer corrections.  I don't know if there is a level on the upside that would signify such a correction has started though.

Here is the latest AAII survey.


The number of bulls crossed above the bulls this week.  This is the third cross this year.  The first cross came right at a low.  The second cross came just before a pullback.  Both instances peaked right after the cross and started back down.  It remains to be seen if this cross peaks quickly or not.  This one is not telling us much at this time.

The II survey bulls dropped considerably, but are still above the low point for the year.  However, the NAAIM survey dropped to the lowest level since last June.  Sentiment has not turned outright bearish for the market, but it has lost some of the raging bullishness it has been showing.  This may affect how people feel about chasing price higher.


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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.