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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 11/10/20

Up 11/4/20

Up 11/9/20

Short term

? 11/18/20

Up 11/5/20

? 11/18/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

A couple of interesting charts

A lot has been written about how consumer confidence is much lower then previous recoveries.  I think this chart does a pretty good job of explaining why.



Clearly real disposable income is not growing like it did after previous recessions.  We have had a number of recessions where the income grew at a faster rate then the last few years.   Is it any wonder many people wonder if the recession ever ended.  The Wall Street recovery did not trickle down to main street.

I thought this was an interesting chart.


This is another one of those charts that makes it look like we could be in a recession.  In the middle of 2012 companies started lowering their dividends at an elevated rate.  The pattern looks very much like it did going into the last recession.  Unfortunately the data series does not go back very far.  There is not really enough data here to conclude we are in a recession.  It is interesting that the spike occurred in mid 2012 which is the same time the ECRI claims the U.S. entered a recession.

Whether we are in a recession or not may be hard to determine.  However, it is clear this recovery has been very weak on main street and the economy is on shaky ground.

Bob



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