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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 8/14/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

?- 9/14/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Tuesday, May 7, 2013

Misc. charts 5/7

Here are a couple of interesting charts I ran across.


Traders are holding a lot of net long positions in the NDX 100 futures.  We are approaching levels that have marked short term tops over the last year.  This chart also shows how much higher optimism there is these days over the early days of the bull market. 

Check this out.



Apparently people are buying treasury futures right along with technology.   Notice the last three years the COT data went from net short to net long a little before the top in stocks each spring.  This could be a bit of a warning sign.

This next chart is for long term investors.

Source

I highly recommend reading the article in the source link (thanks Herm for pointing this one out).  This is from an article from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.  This is based on the same age demographic charts I have shown with respect to secular bull and bear markets.  Even if you don't believe me, maybe you will believe them.  Even though it might not seem like it now, the market has serious headwinds for another decade.  There are more serious bear markets out there lurking.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.